Guangzhou Open: Paula Badosa vs Harriet Dart

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Paula Badosa (43%) · Paula Badosa at 72¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6

Paula Badosa72¢Harriet Dart28¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Paula Badosa

Consensus Traders

Paula Badosa 43%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$8.21

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 71.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralPaula Badosa at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Paula Badosa

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Paula Badosa72%

Harriet Dart28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Paula Badosa3 traders

Total Value$925.87

Total Shares1,234

Combined PnL+$19.89

Harriet Dart4 traders

Total Value$453.23

Total Shares1,808

Combined PnL-$28.1

Paula Badosa — 43%Harriet Dart — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Paula Badosaavg 73.5¢	$821.73	$820.12	+$17.12	58% 41297-29942 (71239)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Harriet Dartavg 26¢	$284.51	$273.57	-$10.94	49% 674-698 (1372)
0xheavy888	Paula Badosaavg 73¢	$99.28	$102	+$2.72	55% 7001-5619 (12620)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Harriet Dartavg 28¢	$107.55	$96.03	-$11.52	62% 13680-8523 (22203)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Harriet Dartavg 27¢	$78.65	$72.82	-$5.83	49% 18867-19279 (38146)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR<$100	Harriet Dartavg 28¢	$10.62	$10.81	+$0.19	54% 583-504 (1087)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Paula Badosaavg 74¢	$3.7	$3.75	+$0.05	47% 2205-2491 (4696)

VeryLucky888

Paula Badosa

Invested

$821.73

Value

$820.12

PnL

+$17.12

Record

58%

41297-29942 (71239)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Harriet Dart

Invested

$284.51

Value

$273.57

PnL

-$10.94

Record

49%

674-698 (1372)

0xheavy888

Paula Badosa

Invested

$99.28

Value

$102

PnL

+$2.72

Record

55%

7001-5619 (12620)

LilybaeumCTR

Harriet Dart

Invested

$107.55

Value

$96.03

PnL

-$11.52

Record

62%

13680-8523 (22203)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Harriet Dart

Invested

$78.65

Value

$72.82

PnL

-$5.83

Record

49%

18867-19279 (38146)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR<$100

Harriet Dart

Invested

$10.62

Value

$10.81

PnL

+$0.19

Record

54%

583-504 (1087)

ameisgoat11<$100

Paula Badosa

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.05

Record

47%

2205-2491 (4696)

Research grade

NeutralPaula Badosa at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Paula Badosa

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Paula Badosa wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.