Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Elina Svitolina, while the market favors Mirra Andreeva (65%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

WTA Finals, Group B: Mirra Andreeva vs Elina Svitolina

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Elina Svitolina (91%) · Elina Svitolina at 36¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 16

Mirra Andreeva65¢Elina Svitolina35¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Elina Svitolina

Consensus Traders

Elina Svitolina 91%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$26.54

Smart Money Entry

35.1¢ → 35.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Research candidateElina Svitolina at 36%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Elina Svitolina

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Mirra Andreeva 65%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mirra Andreeva65%

Elina Svitolina36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mirra Andreeva1 trader

Total Value$997.18

Total Shares1,546

Combined PnL+$7.73

Elina Svitolina10 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,683

Combined PnL+$18.81

Mirra Andreeva — 9%Elina Svitolina — 91%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Elina Svitolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleElina Svitolina 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMirra Andreeva 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Elina Svitolina 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Mirra Andreevaavg 64¢	$989.45	$997.18	+$7.73	65% 2217-1216 (3433)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 35¢	$901.69	$914.57	+$12.88	47% 2303-2604 (4907)
GC GC-PCTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 35¢	$175	$177.5	+$2.5	57% 22682-16912 (39594)
VeryLucky888CTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 35¢	$175	$171.98	+$2.58	58% 53914-38392 (92306)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 36¢	$145.36	$143.34	-$2.02	45% 2764-3372 (6136)
NM NM-PCTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 35¢	$140.17	$142.17	+$2	57% 22830-16911 (39741)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Elina Svitolinaavg 35¢	$70	$71	+$1	48% 72298-78071 (150369)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Elina Svitolinaavg 35¢	$23.3	$17.1	+$0.3	53% 28460-25726 (54186)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Elina Svitolinaavg 36¢	$16.56	$16.33	-$0.23	45% 14909-18248 (33157)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Elina Svitolinaavg 36¢	$10.56	$10.41	-$0.15	46% 2861-3344 (6205)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Elina Svitolinaavg 36¢	$4.54	$4.48	-$0.06	45% 2826-3461 (6287)

darkumbreon88

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$989.45

Value

$997.18

PnL

+$7.73

Record

65%

2217-1216 (3433)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$901.69

Value

$914.57

PnL

+$12.88

Record

47%

2303-2604 (4907)

GC-PCTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$175

Value

$177.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

57%

22682-16912 (39594)

VeryLucky888CTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$175

Value

$171.98

PnL

+$2.58

Record

58%

53914-38392 (92306)

MadridTimeCTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$145.36

Value

$143.34

PnL

-$2.02

Record

45%

2764-3372 (6136)

NM-PCTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$140.17

Value

$142.17

PnL

+$2

Record

57%

22830-16911 (39741)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$70

Value

$71

PnL

+$1

Record

48%

72298-78071 (150369)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$23.3

Value

$17.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

28460-25726 (54186)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$16.56

Value

$16.33

PnL

-$0.23

Record

45%

14909-18248 (33157)

LimousinCTR<$100

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$10.56

Value

$10.41

PnL

-$0.15

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

VenusianCTR<$100

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$4.54

Value

$4.48

PnL

-$0.06

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

Research grade

Research candidateElina Svitolina at 36%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Elina Svitolina

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Mirra Andreeva 65%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Elina Svitolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleElina Svitolina 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMirra Andreeva 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Elina Svitolina 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Elina Svitolina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.