Andreeva vs. Muchova: Match O/U 21.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 51¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 17

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

$119.85

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 50.5¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares22,289

Combined PnL-$203.51

Over6 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares12,787

Combined PnL+$323.36

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
one8tyfive	Underavg 52¢	$7.1K	$7.2K	+$68.41	— 10-5 (15)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Underavg 56¢	$4.2K	$3.9K	-$262.52	2% 11-509 (520)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 44¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$230.26	21% 156-572 (728)
NO NoAddressCTR	Overavg 48¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$90	—
VeryLucky888	Underavg 53.5¢	$605.59	$545.38	-$9.66	53% 1030-921 (1951)
NI NinjaSquirtleCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$42.34	$42.77	+$0.43	—
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 44.1¢	$32.57	$35.1	+$2.53	56% 309-246 (555)
S- S-Works<$100	Underavg 50¢	$25	$25.25	+$0.25	65% 514-281 (795)
WH whosayCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$18.61	$18.81	+$0.19	69% 50-22 (72)
LO looppauCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$5	$4.95	-$0.05	100% 519-0 (519)

one8tyfive

Under

Invested

$7,115.12

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$68.41

Record

—

10-5 (15)

JAMJAMJAM4

Under

Invested

$4,208.8

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$262.52

Record

11-509 (520)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$2,894.32

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$230.26

Record

21%

156-572 (728)

NoAddressCTR

Over

Invested

$2,880

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$90

Record

—

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$605.59

Value

$545.38

PnL

-$9.66

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

NinjaSquirtleCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42.34

Value

$42.77

PnL

+$0.43

Record

—

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.57

Value

$35.1

PnL

+$2.53

Record

56%

309-246 (555)

S-

S-Works<$100

Under

Invested

$25

Value

$25.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

65%

514-281 (795)

whosayCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.61

Value

$18.81

PnL

+$0.19

Record

69%

50-22 (72)

looppauCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

100%

519-0 (519)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.