WTA Finals, Group B: Mirra Andreeva vs Karolina Muchova

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Mirra Andreeva (23%) · Mirra Andreeva at 72¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 17

Mirra Andreeva72¢Karolina Muchova28¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mirra Andreeva

Consensus Traders

Mirra Andreeva 23%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$19.62

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 71.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralMirra Andreeva at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mirra Andreeva

3 of 13 top traders (23%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mirra Andreeva72%

Karolina Muchova28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mirra Andreeva3 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares4,701

Combined PnL+$25.56

Karolina Muchova10 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares6,517

Combined PnL-$5.94

Mirra Andreeva — 23%Karolina Muchova — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Mirra Andreeva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperKarolina Muchova 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMirra Andreeva 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Karolina Muchova 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Mirra Andreevaavg 70.6¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$34.9	44% 391-495 (886)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Mirra Andreevaavg 72¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$10.21	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Karolina Muchovaavg 27.7¢	$1.2K	$626.44	+$37.75	53% 1030-921 (1951)
└ Karolina Muchova leg	Karolina Muchovaavg 27.7¢	$390.51	$394.6	+$4.09
└ Mirra Andreeva leg	Mirra Andreevaavg 69¢	$222.18	$231.84	+$33.66
YE yesmateCTR	Karolina Muchovaavg 29¢	$577.6	$557.68	-$19.92	52% 182-166 (348)
NM NM-PCTR	Karolina Muchovaavg 28¢	$409.52	$416.83	+$7.31	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-PCTR	Karolina Muchovaavg 28¢	$280	$285	+$5	33% 251-499 (750)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Karolina Muchovaavg 28¢	$223.99	$227.99	+$4	22% 266-965 (1231)
38 38791873984189CTR	Karolina Muchovaavg 28¢	$171.55	$171.6	+$0.05	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Karolina Muchovaavg 28.5¢	$143.56	$140.84	-$2.72	56% 307-245 (552)
DV dv-pm<$100	Mirra Andreevaavg 71¢	$61.77	$62.64	+$0.87	40% 17-26 (43)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Karolina Muchovaavg 28¢	$28	$28.5	+$0.5	50% 167-168 (335)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Karolina Muchovaavg 28¢	$27.56	$20.36	+$0	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Karolina Muchovaavg 28¢	$2.1	$2.13	+$0.04	43% 808-1065 (1873)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Karolina Muchovaavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.4	-$0.2	40% 584-893 (1477)

omnibus-076daa

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$1,816.88

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$34.9

Record

44%

391-495 (886)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$1,470.01

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$10.21

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Karolina Muchova

Invested

$1,233.68

Value

$626.44

PnL

+$37.75

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

Both legs:

Karolina Muchova$390.5127.7¢+$4.09

Mirra Andreeva$222.1869¢+$33.66

yesmateCTR

Karolina Muchova

Invested

$577.6

Value

$557.68

PnL

-$19.92

Record

52%

182-166 (348)

NM-PCTR

Karolina Muchova

Invested

$409.52

Value

$416.83

PnL

+$7.31

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-PCTR

Karolina Muchova

Invested

$280

Value

$285

PnL

+$5

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Karolina Muchova

Invested

$223.99

Value

$227.99

PnL

+$4

Record

22%

266-965 (1231)

38791873984189CTR

Karolina Muchova

Invested

$171.55

Value

$171.6

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Karolina Muchova

Invested

$143.56

Value

$140.84

PnL

-$2.72

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

dv-pm<$100

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$61.77

Value

$62.64

PnL

+$0.87

Record

40%

17-26 (43)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Karolina Muchova

Invested

$28

Value

$28.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

167-168 (335)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Karolina Muchova

Invested

$27.56

Value

$20.36

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

sentrioCTR<$100

Karolina Muchova

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$0.04

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Karolina Muchova

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Research grade

NeutralMirra Andreeva at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mirra Andreeva

3 of 13 top traders (23%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Mirra Andreeva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperKarolina Muchova 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMirra Andreeva 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Karolina Muchova 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mirra Andreeva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.