Sopo: Bianca Andreescu vs Rebeka Masarova

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Rebeka Masarova (54%) · Rebeka Masarova at 56¢ · $73K held · ends Nov 17

Bianca Andreescu44¢Rebeka Masarova56¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rebeka Masarova

Consensus Traders

Rebeka Masarova 54%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$72.9K

Combined PnL

$614.62

Smart Money Entry

46.4¢ → 56¢

+21% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralRebeka Masarova at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rebeka Masarova

7 of 13 top traders (54%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bianca Andreescu44%

Rebeka Masarova56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rebeka Masarova7 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares16,526

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Bianca Andreescu6 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares15,205

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Rebeka Masarova — 54%Bianca Andreescu — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Rebeka Masarovaavg 48.3¢	$19.9K	$19.9K	+$37.41	51% 3162-3066 (6228)
└ Rebeka Masarova leg	Rebeka Masarovaavg 48.3¢	$12.4K	$14.5K	+$2.1K
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 60.3¢	$7.5K	$5.4K	$-2.1K
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 48¢	$8.2K	$9.7K	+$2.9K	25% 218-645 (863)
└ Rebeka Masarova leg	Rebeka Masarovaavg 27.2¢	$2.4K	$5.0K	+$3.4K
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 48¢	$5.1K	$4.6K	-$483.69
HV HVAB	Rebeka Masarovaavg 48¢	$5.4K	$6.9K	+$1.4K	26% 9-25 (34)
RN1ARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 73¢	$6.9K	$6.6K	-$297.9	58% 3761-2714 (6475)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 73¢	$5.6K	$3.6K	$-2.0K
└ Rebeka Masarova leg	Rebeka Masarovaavg 23.4¢	$1.3K	$3.1K	+$1.7K
LI LimousinCTR	Bianca Andreescuavg 51.6¢	$7.5K	$6.4K	$-1.1K	25% 217-656 (873)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 47.8¢	$6.3K	$6.0K	+$1.1K	25% 216-657 (873)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 47.8¢	$4.3K	$3.9K	-$381.71
└ Rebeka Masarova leg	Rebeka Masarovaavg 32.7¢	$1.2K	$2.1K	+$1.4K
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 57.6¢	$7.8K	$5.9K	$-1.9K	54% 1629-1388 (3017)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 57.6¢	$7.2K	$4.4K	$-2.7K
└ Rebeka Masarova leg	Rebeka Masarovaavg 27.6¢	$634.65	$1.5K	+$850.83
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 58.2¢	$6.0K	$4.9K	$-1.1K	25% 218-637 (855)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 58.2¢	$5.3K	$3.6K	$-1.7K
└ Rebeka Masarova leg	Rebeka Masarovaavg 31.6¢	$655.6	$1.3K	+$600.48
TH thirdt1me	Rebeka Masarovaavg 51.2¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	+$37.79	37% 72-122 (194)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 47.7¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	+$543.03	18% 74-342 (416)
└ Rebeka Masarova leg	Rebeka Masarovaavg 29¢	$313.42	$605.01	+$584.94
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 47.7¢	$534.82	$492.91	-$41.91
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Rebeka Masarovaavg 41.7¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$50.28	48% 879-959 (1838)
└ Rebeka Masarova leg	Rebeka Masarovaavg 41.7¢	$660.14	$735.31	+$63.37
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 55.9¢	$308.26	$295.17	-$13.09
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR	Bianca Andreescuavg 44¢	$1.0K	$988.64	-$11.36	— 1-3 (4)
BA babybells	Rebeka Masarovaavg 47.3¢	$1.3K	$739.55	-$74.22	18% 80-370 (450)
VeryLucky888	Rebeka Masarovaavg 25¢	$250	$520	+$270	49% 235-240 (475)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 56.1¢	$390.14	$400.79	+$10.65	56% 3799-2963 (6762)
└ Rebeka Masarova leg	Rebeka Masarovaavg 42¢	$172.21	$231.9	+$59.68
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 56.1¢	$217.93	$168.89	-$49.04
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Rebeka Masarovaavg 26¢	$104	$208	+$104	9% 78-775 (853)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 40.3¢	$43.2	$61.3	+$18.1	52% 65-61 (126)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 40.3¢	$31.7	$31.05	-$0.65
└ Rebeka Masarova leg	Rebeka Masarovaavg 23¢	$11.5	$30.25	+$18.75
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 64¢	$68.71	$53.57	-$15.14	36% 344-620 (964)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 60.6¢	$54.03	$44.15	-$9.88	14% 78-462 (540)
PA Pan9X<$100	Rebeka Masarovaavg 24.4¢	$13.4	$28.6	+$15.2	48% 424-451 (875)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 49¢	$17.15	$16.8	-$0.35	16% 112-570 (682)
PA pauleta23<$100	Rebeka Masarovaavg 57¢	$1.68	$1.53	-$0.15	22% 123-426 (549)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 58¢	$1	$0.75	-$0.25	5% 22-411 (433)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$19,851.25

Value

$19.9K

PnL

+$37.41

Record

51%

3162-3066 (6228)

Both legs:

Rebeka Masarova$12,390.9648.3¢+$2.1K

Bianca Andreescu$7,460.2960.3¢$-2.1K

LightParadoxARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$8,181.58

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

Both legs:

Rebeka Masarova$2,432.1327.2¢+$3.4K

Bianca Andreescu$5,126.6348¢-$483.69

HVAB

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$5,441.04

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

26%

9-25 (34)

RN1ARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$6,942.05

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$297.9

Record

58%

3761-2714 (6475)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$5,594.7273¢$-2.0K

Rebeka Masarova$1,347.3323.4¢+$1.7K

LimousinCTR

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$7,499.09

Value

$6.4K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

VenusianARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$6,258.19

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$4,263.1947.8¢-$381.71

Rebeka Masarova$1,215.7132.7¢+$1.4K

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$7,801.15

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

54%

1629-1388 (3017)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$7,166.557.6¢$-2.7K

Rebeka Masarova$634.6527.6¢+$850.83

MadridTimeARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$5,962.11

Value

$4.9K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$5,306.5158.2¢$-1.7K

Rebeka Masarova$655.631.6¢+$600.48

thirdt1me

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$2,131.34

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$37.79

Record

37%

72-122 (194)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$1,242.51

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$543.03

Record

18%

74-342 (416)

Both legs:

Rebeka Masarova$313.4229¢+$584.94

Bianca Andreescu$534.8247.7¢-$41.91

38791873984189ARB<$100

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$1,000.61

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$50.28

Record

48%

879-959 (1838)

Both legs:

Rebeka Masarova$660.1441.7¢+$63.37

Bianca Andreescu$308.2655.9¢-$13.09

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$1,000

Value

$988.64

PnL

-$11.36

Record

—

1-3 (4)

babybells

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$1,277.92

Value

$739.55

PnL

-$74.22

Record

18%

80-370 (450)

VeryLucky888

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$250

Value

$520

PnL

+$270

Record

49%

235-240 (475)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$390.14

Value

$400.79

PnL

+$10.65

Record

56%

3799-2963 (6762)

Both legs:

Rebeka Masarova$172.2142¢+$59.68

Bianca Andreescu$217.9356.1¢-$49.04

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$104

Value

$208

PnL

+$104

Record

78-775 (853)

EulhunterARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$43.2

Value

$61.3

PnL

+$18.1

Record

52%

65-61 (126)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$31.740.3¢-$0.65

Rebeka Masarova$11.523¢+$18.75

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$68.71

Value

$53.57

PnL

-$15.14

Record

36%

344-620 (964)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$54.03

Value

$44.15

PnL

-$9.88

Record

14%

78-462 (540)

Pan9X<$100

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$13.4

Value

$28.6

PnL

+$15.2

Record

48%

424-451 (875)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$17.15

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$0.35

Record

16%

112-570 (682)

pauleta23<$100

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$1.68

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$0.15

Record

22%

123-426 (549)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

22-411 (433)

Research grade

NeutralRebeka Masarova at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Rebeka Masarova

7 of 13 top traders (54%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rebeka Masarova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.