Curitiba: Carolina M. Alves vs Julia Grabher
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Julia Grabher (80%) · Julia Grabher at 95¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Julia Grabher
10
Julia Grabher 80%
$5.4K
$265.65
88.9¢ → 95¢
+7% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralJulia Grabher at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Julia Grabheravg 91.2¢ | $3.1K | $3.2K | +$145.21 | 54% 16758-14063 (30821) |
TH thestingsnake | Julia Grabheravg 80.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$175.88 | 60% 3930-2656 (6586) |
1L 1lovejump | Julia Grabheravg 92.7¢ | $948.04 | $704.22 | -$41.79 | 53% 601-530 (1131) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Julia Grabheravg 85¢ | $98.3 | $96.43 | -$1.87 | 52% 5837-5457 (11294) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Julia Grabheravg 88.2¢ | $52.94 | $56.1 | +$3.16 | 58% 18325-13460 (31785) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Julia Grabheravg 87¢ | $39.3 | $42.7 | +$3.4 | 67% 23053-11450 (34503) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100 | Carolina M. Alvesavg 12.5¢ | $38.99 | $20.2 | -$18.79 | 52% 13520-12365 (25885) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Julia Grabheravg 92.1¢ | $19.21 | $19.88 | +$0.67 | 54% 2678-2303 (4981) |
 RN1<$100 | Julia Grabheravg 81¢ | $5.67 | $5.53 | -$0.14 | 54% 55411-47463 (102874) |
EF efntrickCTR<$100 | Carolina M. Alvesavg 5¢ | $0.75 | $0.67 | -$0.08 | 48% 3634-3892 (7526) |
Invested
$3,101.05
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$145.21
Record
54%
16758-14063 (30821)
Invested
$1,029.89
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$175.88
Record
60%
3930-2656 (6586)
Invested
$948.04
Value
$704.22
PnL
-$41.79
Record
53%
601-530 (1131)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$98.3
Value
$96.43
PnL
-$1.87
Record
52%
5837-5457 (11294)
Invested
$52.94
Value
$56.1
PnL
+$3.16
Record
58%
18325-13460 (31785)
Invested
$39.3
Value
$42.7
PnL
+$3.4
Record
67%
23053-11450 (34503)
Invested
$38.99
Value
$20.2
PnL
-$18.79
Record
52%
13520-12365 (25885)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$19.21
Value
$19.88
PnL
+$0.67
Record
54%
2678-2303 (4981)
RN1<$100Invested
$5.67
Value
$5.53
PnL
-$0.14
Record
54%
55411-47463 (102874)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$0.67
PnL
-$0.08
Record
48%
3634-3892 (7526)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
HomeRunHazard
Julia Grabher — $3.2K
thestingsnake
Julia Grabher — $1.2K
1lovejump
Julia Grabher — $704.22
tradecraft
Julia Grabher — $96.43
BillBenter2026
Julia Grabher — $56.1
pauleta23
Julia Grabher — $42.7
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
CTRCarolina M. Alves — $20.2
HRTrading
Julia Grabher — $19.88
RN1
Julia Grabher — $5.53
efntrick
CTRCarolina M. Alves — $0.67