Courmayeur: Ayla Aksu vs Noma Noha Akugue

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Noma Noha Akugue (64%) · Noma Noha Akugue at 99¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 6

Ayla Aksu<1¢Noma Noha Akugue>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Noma Noha Akugue

Consensus Traders

Noma Noha Akugue 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 99.3¢

+48% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNoma Noha Akugue at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Noma Noha Akugue

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ayla Aksu1%

Noma Noha Akugue99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Noma Noha Akugue9 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares6,012

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Ayla Aksu5 traders

Total Value$272.11

Total Shares873

Combined PnL-$19.57

Noma Noha Akugue — 64%Ayla Aksu — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Noma Noha Akugueavg 64.3¢	$2.7K	$3.8K	+$1.1K	54% 17115-14330 (31445)
38 38791873984189	Noma Noha Akugueavg 75.1¢	$821.37	$732.56	-$43.6	46% 7940-9367 (17307)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noma Noha Akugueavg 82.3¢	$572.35	$517.79	-$54.56	52% 13719-12523 (26242)
tradecraftCTR	Ayla Aksuavg 42¢	$214.17	$206.57	-$7.6	51% 5972-5664 (11636)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Noma Noha Akugueavg 54.9¢	$143.21	$142.13	-$1.09	59% 30364-21075 (51439)
BI BillBenter2026	Noma Noha Akugueavg 76.2¢	$112.04	$134.51	+$22.46	58% 18578-13636 (32214)
0xheavy888<$100	Noma Noha Akugueavg 59¢	$96.2	$98.64	+$2.45	56% 7053-5654 (12707)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Ayla Aksuavg 48.8¢	$193.1	$74.03	-$109.37	60% 4032-2723 (6755)
└ Noma Noha Akugue leg	Noma Noha Akugueavg 58.4¢	$32.13	$50.88	+$20.43
└ Ayla Aksu leg	Ayla Aksuavg 48.8¢	$150.73	$23.16	-$129.79
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Ayla Aksuavg 40¢	$35.56	$35.12	-$0.44	49% 18979-19390 (38369)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Ayla Aksuavg 40¢	$21.35	$21.08	-$0.27	62% 13684-8535 (22219)
HRTrading<$100	Noma Noha Akugueavg 96¢	$16.32	$16.24	-$0.09	52% 3994-3637 (7631)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noma Noha Akugueavg 92¢	$9.19	$9.14	-$0.05	67% 23266-11671 (34937)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Ayla Aksuavg 8¢	$8	$8.5	+$0.5	38% 3185-5189 (8374)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noma Noha Akugueavg 58¢	$8	$8.35	+$0.35	58% 41488-30106 (71594)
RN1CTR<$100	Ayla Aksuavg 10.5¢	$12.6	$0.84	-$11.76	54% 56315-48472 (104787)

HomeRunHazard

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$2,675.64

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

17115-14330 (31445)

38791873984189

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$821.37

Value

$732.56

PnL

-$43.6

Record

46%

7940-9367 (17307)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$572.35

Value

$517.79

PnL

-$54.56

Record

52%

13719-12523 (26242)

tradecraftCTR

Ayla Aksu

Invested

$214.17

Value

$206.57

PnL

-$7.6

Record

51%

5972-5664 (11636)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$143.21

Value

$142.13

PnL

-$1.09

Record

59%

30364-21075 (51439)

BillBenter2026

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$112.04

Value

$134.51

PnL

+$22.46

Record

58%

18578-13636 (32214)

0xheavy888<$100

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$96.2

Value

$98.64

PnL

+$2.45

Record

56%

7053-5654 (12707)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Ayla Aksu

Invested

$193.1

Value

$74.03

PnL

-$109.37

Record

60%

4032-2723 (6755)

Both legs:

Noma Noha Akugue$32.1358.4¢+$20.43

Ayla Aksu$150.7348.8¢-$129.79

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Ayla Aksu

Invested

$35.56

Value

$35.12

PnL

-$0.44

Record

49%

18979-19390 (38369)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Ayla Aksu

Invested

$21.35

Value

$21.08

PnL

-$0.27

Record

62%

13684-8535 (22219)

HRTrading<$100

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$16.32

Value

$16.24

PnL

-$0.09

Record

52%

3994-3637 (7631)

pauleta23<$100

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$9.19

Value

$9.14

PnL

-$0.05

Record

67%

23266-11671 (34937)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Ayla Aksu

Invested

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

38%

3185-5189 (8374)

VeryLucky888<$100

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

Value

$8.35

PnL

+$0.35

Record

58%

41488-30106 (71594)

RN1CTR<$100

Ayla Aksu

Invested

$12.6

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$11.76

Record

54%

56315-48472 (104787)

Research grade

NeutralNoma Noha Akugue at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Noma Noha Akugue

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Noma Noha Akugue wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.