Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-11-01?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 73¢ · $230 held · ended Nov 1

Yes27¢No73¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$230.31

Combined PnL

$7.95

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 73¢

+30% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$159.85

Total Shares219

Combined PnL+$36.81

Yes2 traders

Total Value$70.46

Total Shares261

Combined PnL-$28.86

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
poshposh	Noavg 48¢	$72	$109.5	+$37.5	58% 10657-7637 (18294)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.2¢	$52.4	$52.1	-$0.3	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 74¢	$51.04	$50.35	-$0.69	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$46.92	$18.36	-$28.56	48% 8942-9563 (18505)

poshposh

Invested

$72

Value

$109.5

PnL

+$37.5

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.4

Value

$52.1

PnL

-$0.3

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$51.04

Value

$50.35

PnL

-$0.69

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.92

Value

$18.36

PnL

-$28.56

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.