Will Liverpool LFC win on 2026-11-01?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 52¢ · $337 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$337.27
$22.75
54.8¢ → 52¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO Notradecopy | Noavg 48¢ | $198.51 | $215.05 | +$22.75 | 49% 3938-4125 (8063) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $95.33 | $63.55 | -$31.78 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $26.89 | $58.67 | +$31.78 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.