Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-11-01?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 84¢ · $138 held · ended Nov 1

Yes84¢No16¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$137.57

Combined PnL

-$5.44

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes84%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$78.83

Total Shares232

Combined PnL-$11.81

Yes4 traders

Total Value$58.74

Total Shares89

Combined PnL+$6.37

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$81.12	$70.72	-$10.4	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$21.09	$24.42	+$3.33	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$18.3	$19.5	+$1.2	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$9.15	$9.9	+$0.75	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$8.34	$7.27	-$1.07	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 51.3¢	$3.83	$4.92	+$1.09	50% 19439-19808 (39247)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$1.18	$0.84	-$0.34	58% 42674-31054 (73728)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$81.12

Value

$70.72

PnL

-$10.4

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

UpTheBlues<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.09

Value

$24.42

PnL

+$3.33

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.3

Value

$19.5

PnL

+$1.2

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.15

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.75

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$8.34

Value

$7.27

PnL

-$1.07

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.83

Value

$4.92

PnL

+$1.09

Record

50%

19439-19808 (39247)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$0.34

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.