Will Aston Villa WFC win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
1 arb excluded
$5.3K
-$21.9
90.5¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 89.4¢ | $2.5K | $2.7K | +$244.2 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Noavg 94.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$57.38 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 94.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$213.37 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $118.75 | $389.5 | +$270.75 | |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 94.4¢ | $671.12 | $567.59 | -$103.52 | 49% 13013-13570 (26583) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 32.7¢ | $567.71 | $374.92 | -$192.79 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.2¢ | $22.82 | $68.46 | +$45.64 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $38.32 | $28.61 | -$9.71 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.3¢ | $5.86 | $4.32 | -$1.54 | 54% 6424-5410 (11834) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.1¢ | $7.41 | $3.8 | -$3.61 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $1.28 | $0.7 | -$0.58 | 51% 6075-5796 (11871) |
Invested
$2,504.27
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$244.2
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,398.59
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$57.38
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
Both legs:
Invested
$671.12
Value
$567.59
PnL
-$103.52
Record
49%
13013-13570 (26583)
Invested
$567.71
Value
$374.92
PnL
-$192.79
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
Invested
$22.82
Value
$68.46
PnL
+$45.64
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$38.32
Value
$28.61
PnL
-$9.71
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$5.86
Value
$4.32
PnL
-$1.54
Record
54%
6424-5410 (11834)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$7.41
Value
$3.8
PnL
-$3.61
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$1.28
Value
$0.7
PnL
-$0.58
Record
51%
6075-5796 (11871)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.