Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Atlanta Dream (50%) · Atlanta Dream at 64¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30

Golden State Valkyries37¢Atlanta Dream63¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Atlanta Dream

Consensus Traders

Atlanta Dream 50%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$610.09

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 63.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidAtlanta Dream at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Atlanta Dream

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Golden State Valkyries37%

Atlanta Dream64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Golden State Valkyries3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,556

Combined PnL+$389.65

Atlanta Dream3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,309

Combined PnL+$220.44

Golden State Valkyries — 50%Atlanta Dream — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Golden State Valkyriesavg 36¢	$874.28	$1.2K	+$364.28	54% 16897-14158 (31055)
LU LuckyLoo	Atlanta Dreamavg 63.6¢	$822.33	$820.8	-$1.53	49% 12313-12578 (24891)
VeryLucky888	Atlanta Dreamavg 58.7¢	$2.5K	$330.53	+$219.47	58% 41030-29693 (70723)
BA banepir	Atlanta Dreamavg 63¢	$314.99	$317.49	+$2.5	49% 446-460 (906)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Golden State Valkyriesavg 36¢	$29.88	$42.33	+$12.45	54% 2926-2512 (5438)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Golden State Valkyriesavg 21.8¢	$9.62	$22.53	+$12.91	93% 2979-237 (3216)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Golden State Valkyries

Invested

$874.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$364.28

Record

54%

16897-14158 (31055)

LuckyLoo

Atlanta Dream

Invested

$822.33

Value

$820.8

PnL

-$1.53

Record

49%

12313-12578 (24891)

VeryLucky888

Atlanta Dream

Invested

$2,543.63

Value

$330.53

PnL

+$219.47

Record

58%

41030-29693 (70723)

banepir

Atlanta Dream

Invested

$314.99

Value

$317.49

PnL

+$2.5

Record

49%

446-460 (906)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Golden State Valkyries

Invested

$29.88

Value

$42.33

PnL

+$12.45

Record

54%

2926-2512 (5438)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Golden State Valkyries

Invested

$9.62

Value

$22.53

PnL

+$12.91

Record

93%

2979-237 (3216)

Research grade

AvoidAtlanta Dream at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Atlanta Dream

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Atlanta Dream wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.