Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Golden State Valkyries (83%) · Golden State Valkyries at 52¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1

Atlanta Dream49¢Golden State Valkyries51¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Golden State Valkyries

Consensus Traders

Golden State Valkyries 83%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$39.34

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidGolden State Valkyries at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Golden State Valkyries

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Atlanta Dream49%

Golden State Valkyries52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Golden State Valkyries5 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares10,532

Combined PnL+$14.13

Atlanta Dream1 trader

Total Value$217.86

Total Shares454

Combined PnL+$25.21

Golden State Valkyries — 83%Atlanta Dream — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Golden State Valkyries. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGolden State Valkyries 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpGolden State Valkyries 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrGolden State Valkyries 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedGolden State Valkyries 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Golden State Valkyries 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Golden State Valkyriesavg 51¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$0.1	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
AN AnonymousUsername	Golden State Valkyriesavg 51¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$1.52	74% 6686-2399 (9085)
VeryLucky888	Golden State Valkyriesavg 51¢	$510	$337.72	+$6.72	58% 41980-30479 (72459)
BA BayupatiCTR	Atlanta Dreamavg 42.9¢	$194.92	$217.86	+$25.21	51% 227-221 (448)
OM omoi0i0	Golden State Valkyriesavg 50¢	$111.47	$113.7	+$5.57	65% 1505-813 (2318)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Golden State Valkyriesavg 51.2¢	$65.78	$66.2	+$0.42	58% 28754-21204 (49958)

HomeRunHazard

Golden State Valkyries

Invested

$3,652.42

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

AnonymousUsername

Golden State Valkyries

Invested

$1,288.62

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$1.52

Record

74%

6686-2399 (9085)

VeryLucky888

Golden State Valkyries

Invested

$510

Value

$337.72

PnL

+$6.72

Record

58%

41980-30479 (72459)

BayupatiCTR

Atlanta Dream

Invested

$194.92

Value

$217.86

PnL

+$25.21

Record

51%

227-221 (448)

omoi0i0

Golden State Valkyries

Invested

$111.47

Value

$113.7

PnL

+$5.57

Record

65%

1505-813 (2318)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Golden State Valkyries

Invested

$65.78

Value

$66.2

PnL

+$0.42

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

Research grade

AvoidGolden State Valkyries at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Golden State Valkyries

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Golden State Valkyries. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGolden State Valkyries 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpGolden State Valkyries 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrGolden State Valkyries 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedGolden State Valkyries 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Golden State Valkyries 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Golden State Valkyries wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.