Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $279 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$279.48
-$0.42
99.9¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 99.9¢ | $144.86 | $144.64 | -$0.22 | 6% 22-367 (389) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $65.11 | $65.02 | -$0.1 | 44% 1072-1377 (2449) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.93 | -$0.04 | 25% 816-2478 (3294) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.95 | -$0.03 | 52% 5344-4847 (10191) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.95 | -$0.03 | 14% 43-271 (314) |
Invested
$144.86
Value
$144.64
PnL
-$0.22
Record
6%
22-367 (389)
Invested
$65.11
Value
$65.02
PnL
-$0.1
Record
44%
1072-1377 (2449)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.93
PnL
-$0.04
Record
25%
816-2478 (3294)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.95
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
5344-4847 (10191)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.95
PnL
-$0.03
Record
14%
43-271 (314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.