Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.3K
$79.66
87¢ → 94.7¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
1794h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 elmcap2 | Noavg 86.6¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$166.27 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
 wish- | Noavg 92.6¢ | $188.29 | $192.62 | +$4.33 | 79% 1176-319 (1495) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Noavg 78.3¢ | $62.62 | $75.76 | +$13.14 | 52% 2049-1868 (3917) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $65.56 | $60.89 | +$0.51 | 56% 14220-11020 (25240) |
 fireponbabylonCTR | Yesavg 35.3¢ | $123.36 | $18.76 | -$104.59 | 43% 370-481 (851) |
elmcap2Invested
$1,772.13
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$166.27
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
wish-Invested
$188.29
Value
$192.62
PnL
+$4.33
Record
79%
1176-319 (1495)
Invested
$62.62
Value
$75.76
PnL
+$13.14
Record
52%
2049-1868 (3917)
Invested
$65.56
Value
$60.89
PnL
+$0.51
Record
56%
14220-11020 (25240)
fireponbabylonCTRInvested
$123.36
Value
$18.76
PnL
-$104.59
Record
43%
370-481 (851)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.