Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $30 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$30.48

Combined PnL

-$6.98

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$24.94

Total Shares25

Combined PnL+$0.06

Yes4 traders

Total Value$5.01

Total Shares858

Combined PnL-$7.04

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VA vamosgaming<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$24.88	$24.94	+$0.06	27% 195-523 (718)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$3.79	$3.75	-$0.04	69% 2060-935 (2995)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$2.45	$0.55	-$1.9	58% 100-71 (171)
mombilCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$6.21	$0.49	-$5.72	55% 1187-966 (2153)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.76	$0.22	+$0.61	32% 6241-12971 (19212)

vamosgaming<$100

Invested

$24.88

Value

$24.94

PnL

+$0.06

Record

27%

195-523 (718)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.79

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$0.04

Record

69%

2060-935 (2995)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$1.9

Record

58%

100-71 (171)

mombilCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.21

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$5.72

Record

55%

1187-966 (2153)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.76

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.61

Record

32%

6241-12971 (19212)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6351.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

6451.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.