Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $37 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$37.04
-$12.38
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VA vamosgaming<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $24.93 | $24.93 | +$0 | 27% 195-523 (718) |
 PorxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $18.34 | $10.39 | -$7.95 | 66% 1458-756 (2214) |
 GollumGekkoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $3.79 | $1.25 | -$2.54 | 69% 2060-935 (2995) |
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $2.45 | $0.37 | -$2.08 | 58% 100-71 (171) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.21 | $0.11 | +$0.19 | 32% 6241-12971 (19212) |
Invested
$24.93
Value
$24.93
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
195-523 (718)
PorxCTR<$100Invested
$18.34
Value
$10.39
PnL
-$7.95
Record
66%
1458-756 (2214)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100Invested
$3.79
Value
$1.25
PnL
-$2.54
Record
69%
2060-935 (2995)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$0.37
PnL
-$2.08
Record
58%
100-71 (171)
Invested
$0.21
Value
$0.11
PnL
+$0.19
Record
32%
6241-12971 (19212)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.