Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican before 2027?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $9 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$9.07
-$41.94
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
4856h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $9.85 | $4.92 | -$4.92 | 51% 539-527 (1066) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $32.7 | $1.47 | -$31.23 | 38% 2946-4725 (7671) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $1.26 | $0.94 | -$0.31 | 21% 2292-8796 (11088) |
 GollumGekkoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $3.79 | $0.75 | -$3.04 | 68% 2076-965 (3041) |
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $2.54 | $0.11 | -$2.43 | 63% 5425-3192 (8617) |
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100Invested
$9.85
Value
$4.92
PnL
-$4.92
Record
51%
539-527 (1066)
Invested
$32.7
Value
$1.47
PnL
-$31.23
Record
38%
2946-4725 (7671)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.26
Value
$0.94
PnL
-$0.31
Record
21%
2292-8796 (11088)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100Invested
$3.79
Value
$0.75
PnL
-$3.04
Record
68%
2076-965 (3041)
Invested
$2.54
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$2.43
Record
63%
5425-3192 (8617)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.