Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $7 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$6.83
-$22.85
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Late
4751h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $4.1 | $4.13 | +$0.03 | 33% 6259-12974 (19233) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $2.4 | $0.8 | -$1.6 | 18% 519-2317 (2836) |
 GollumGekkoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $3.79 | $0.5 | -$3.29 | 69% 2064-936 (3000) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $16.1 | $0.48 | -$15.62 | 57% 13341-10198 (23539) |
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $2.45 | $0.07 | -$2.38 | 58% 103-74 (177) |
Invested
$4.1
Value
$4.13
PnL
+$0.03
Record
33%
6259-12974 (19233)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.4
Value
$0.8
PnL
-$1.6
Record
18%
519-2317 (2836)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100Invested
$3.79
Value
$0.5
PnL
-$3.29
Record
69%
2064-936 (3000)
Invested
$16.1
Value
$0.48
PnL
-$15.62
Record
57%
13341-10198 (23539)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$2.38
Record
58%
103-74 (177)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.