Will Zdravko Ponoš win the next Serbia presidential election?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $470 held · ends May 2, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$470.47
-$0.24
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.9¢ | $273 | $272.86 | -$0.14 | 30% 2683-6207 (8890) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $91.09 | $91.04 | -$0.05 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $86.64 | $86.6 | -$0.04 | 40% 1453-2158 (3611) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.97 | -$0.01 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
Invested
$273
Value
$272.86
PnL
-$0.14
Record
30%
2683-6207 (8890)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$91.09
Value
$91.04
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
Invested
$86.64
Value
$86.6
PnL
-$0.04
Record
40%
1453-2158 (3611)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.97
PnL
-$0.01
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.