Will Yuli Edelstein be the next Speaker of the Knesset?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $403 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$403.32
$0.6
99.8¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 46%
Freshness
Late
94h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer | Noavg 99.9¢ | $124.88 | $124.94 | +$0.06 | 26% 898-2508 (3406) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $59.82 | $59.97 | +$0.15 | 17% 54-273 (327) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $49.95 | $49.98 | +$0.02 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $39.86 | $39.98 | +$0.12 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $39.86 | $39.96 | +$0.1 | 50% 4547-4458 (9005) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $37.75 | $37.83 | +$0.08 | 25% 822-2479 (3301) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.99 | +$0.02 | 28% 840-2134 (2974) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $7.98 | $8 | +$0.02 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $6.98 | $7 | +$0.02 | 79% 231-63 (294) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.68 | $5.69 | +$0 | 40% 1412-2154 (3566) |
Invested
$124.88
Value
$124.94
PnL
+$0.06
Record
26%
898-2508 (3406)
Invested
$59.82
Value
$59.97
PnL
+$0.15
Record
17%
54-273 (327)
Invested
$49.95
Value
$49.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
Invested
$39.86
Value
$39.98
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
balthazar<$100Invested
$39.86
Value
$39.96
PnL
+$0.1
Record
50%
4547-4458 (9005)
Invested
$37.75
Value
$37.83
PnL
+$0.08
Record
25%
822-2479 (3301)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.02
Record
28%
840-2134 (2974)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.98
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.02
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$6.98
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.02
Record
79%
231-63 (294)
Invested
$5.68
Value
$5.69
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1412-2154 (3566)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.