Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will You Can See Everything win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 20¢ · $2K held · ends Mar 14, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$1.8K
$1.4K
4.7¢ → 19.9¢
+321% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Late
474h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $78.36 | $717.34 | +$638.97 | 50% 1220-1233 (2453) |
 bosshogCTR | Yesavg 5¢ | $99.37 | $396 | +$298.63 | 72% 1052-416 (1468) |
LU lugCTR | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $38.31 | $297.15 | +$240.26 | 54% 1843-1581 (3424) |
DO donthackmeCTR | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $27.03 | $247.47 | +$220.44 | 73% 11083-4091 (15174) |
 DirkDiggler67CTR | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $150.44 | $105.06 | -$45.39 | 60% 489-322 (811) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $0.22 | $1.99 | +$1.77 | 35% 558-1046 (1604) |
 pup1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.9¢ | $1.72 | $1.81 | +$0.09 | 46% 1978-2361 (4339) |
Invested
$78.36
Value
$717.34
PnL
+$638.97
Record
50%
1220-1233 (2453)
bosshogCTRInvested
$99.37
Value
$396
PnL
+$298.63
Record
72%
1052-416 (1468)
Invested
$38.31
Value
$297.15
PnL
+$240.26
Record
54%
1843-1581 (3424)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$247.47
PnL
+$220.44
Record
73%
11083-4091 (15174)
DirkDiggler67CTRInvested
$150.44
Value
$105.06
PnL
-$45.39
Record
60%
489-322 (811)
Invested
$0.22
Value
$1.99
PnL
+$1.77
Record
35%
558-1046 (1604)
pup1CTR<$100Invested
$1.72
Value
$1.81
PnL
+$0.09
Record
46%
1978-2361 (4339)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.