Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Yolanda Díaz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3 held · ends Apr 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Apr 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$3.25

Combined PnL

-$52.64

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.25

Total Shares3,247

Combined PnL-$52.64

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

575h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$34.19	$1.98	-$32.21	45% 1824-2263 (4087)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$8.22	$0.48	-$7.75	31% 295-651 (946)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$7.87	$0.46	-$7.41	57% 13182-10034 (23216)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yes	$0.2	$0.2	-$3.25	57% 3053-2302 (5355)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$2.16	$0.13	-$2.03	27% 197-526 (723)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.19

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$32.21

Record

45%

1824-2263 (4087)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.22

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$7.75

Record

31%

295-651 (946)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.87

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$7.41

Record

57%

13182-10034 (23216)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$3.25

Record

57%

3053-2302 (5355)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.16

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$2.03

Record

27%

197-526 (723)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

575h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8644.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

8745.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.