Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 84¢ · $736 held · ended Oct 27

Yes84¢No16¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$735.86

Combined PnL

$139.19

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 84¢

+59% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes84%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$626.62

Total Shares924

Combined PnL+$120.14

No2 traders

Total Value$109.24

Total Shares632

Combined PnL+$19.05

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME melonmanm	Yesavg 50.5¢	$407.44	$508.99	+$101.55	65% 487-262 (749)
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Yesavg 65.3¢	$99.05	$117.64	+$18.59	61% 148-94 (242)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 13.8¢	$77.8	$90.4	+$12.6	18% 519-2318 (2837)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 40¢	$256.04	$18.84	+$6.45	53% 6405-5609 (12014)

melonmanm

Yes

Invested

$407.44

Value

$508.99

PnL

+$101.55

Record

65%

487-262 (749)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Yes

Invested

$99.05

Value

$117.64

PnL

+$18.59

Record

61%

148-94 (242)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$77.8

Value

$90.4

PnL

+$12.6

Record

18%

519-2318 (2837)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$256.04

Value

$18.84

PnL

+$6.45

Record

53%

6405-5609 (12014)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.