Will Yashar win 22-23 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 99¢ · $263 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$263.37
-$125.19
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lissartter | Noavg 61.6¢ | $159.48 | $255.81 | +$96.33 | 42% 5209-7140 (12349) |
0X 0xe312101A6EA5c00821B74e2855c2674147B2e0b2-1730831637679CTR | Yesavg 31¢ | $139.78 | $5.19 | -$134.59 | 27% 8-22 (30) |
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960CTR<$100 | Yesavg 59.9¢ | $77.26 | $1.48 | -$75.78 | 61% 148-94 (242) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.7¢ | $12.05 | $0.88 | -$11.16 | 74% 2724-977 (3701) |
Invested
$159.48
Value
$255.81
PnL
+$96.33
Record
42%
5209-7140 (12349)
Invested
$139.78
Value
$5.19
PnL
-$134.59
Record
27%
8-22 (30)
Invested
$77.26
Value
$1.48
PnL
-$75.78
Record
61%
148-94 (242)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$12.05
Value
$0.88
PnL
-$11.16
Record
74%
2724-977 (3701)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.