Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Yashar win 20-21 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 29¢ · $770 held · ended Oct 27

Yes71¢No29¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$770.05

Combined PnL

$15.05

Research grade

AvoidNo at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$542.52

Total Shares1,233

Combined PnL+$43.91

Yes4 traders

Total Value$227.53

Total Shares347

Combined PnL-$28.86

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
The-JokerCTR	Noavg 39.9¢	$492.45	$542.52	+$43.91	68% 1489-692 (2181)
BiDiFakePolls	Yesavg 82¢	$250	$157.5	-$47.5	58% 172-124 (296)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 59.8¢	$33.63	$36.84	+$3.22	53% 6308-5527 (11835)
Sardinianshepherd<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$12.25	$20.5	+$7.38	65% 923-506 (1429)
ME melonmanm<$100	Yesavg 17.3¢	$4.64	$12.69	+$8.05	65% 484-260 (744)

The-JokerCTR

Invested

$492.45

Value

$542.52

PnL

+$43.91

Record

68%

1489-692 (2181)

BiDiFakePolls

Yes

Invested

$250

Value

$157.5

PnL

-$47.5

Record

58%

172-124 (296)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.63

Value

$36.84

PnL

+$3.22

Record

53%

6308-5527 (11835)

Sardinianshepherd<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.25

Value

$20.5

PnL

+$7.38

Record

65%

923-506 (1429)

melonmanm<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.64

Value

$12.69

PnL

+$8.05

Record

65%

484-260 (744)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.1%

29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$222.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

322.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.