Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 47¢ · $113 held · ends Jun 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$112.77
-$20.69
67.3¢ → 47¢
-30% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RockyZetCTR<$100 | Yesavg 73.6¢ | $86.59 | $55.31 | -$30.1 | 67% 257-128 (385) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 55.7¢ | $32.42 | $33.2 | +$0.78 | 42% 5192-7113 (12305) |
ME melonmanm<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $13.5 | $21.5 | +$8.25 | 65% 484-260 (744) |
 crypto-basenji<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.15 | +$0 | 38% 167-275 (442) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $0.23 | $0.61 | +$0.38 | 47% 2029-2245 (4274) |
RockyZetCTR<$100Invested
$86.59
Value
$55.31
PnL
-$30.1
Record
67%
257-128 (385)
Invested
$32.42
Value
$33.2
PnL
+$0.78
Record
42%
5192-7113 (12305)
Invested
$13.5
Value
$21.5
PnL
+$8.25
Record
65%
484-260 (744)
crypto-basenji<$100Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.15
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
167-275 (442)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$0.23
Value
$0.61
PnL
+$0.38
Record
47%
2029-2245 (4274)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.