Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 13¢ · $395 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$394.5
$124.94
8.2¢ → 13¢
+58% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
575h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
13 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PaddyAlphaARB<$100 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $164.55 | $190.67 | +$26.12 | 60% 975-652 (1627) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 89.8¢ | $152.66 | $148.41 | -$4.59 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $6.2 | $42.26 | +$30.71 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 11.3¢ | $121.08 | $118.88 | +$68.23 | 36% 14340-25707 (40047) |
 Optimus-CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $13.03 | $59.57 | +$47 | 61% 1192-754 (1946) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $3 | $12.8 | +$7.3 | 57% 1092-822 (1914) |
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $8.03 | $10.28 | +$2.41 | 45% 108-131 (239) |
ME melonmanmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.8¢ | $0.82 | $0.82 | -$0 | 65% 482-259 (741) |
PaddyAlphaARB<$100Invested
$164.55
Value
$190.67
PnL
+$26.12
Record
60%
975-652 (1627)
Both legs:
Invested
$121.08
Value
$118.88
PnL
+$68.23
Record
36%
14340-25707 (40047)
Optimus-CTR<$100Invested
$13.03
Value
$59.57
PnL
+$47
Record
61%
1192-754 (1946)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100Invested
$3
Value
$12.8
PnL
+$7.3
Record
57%
1092-822 (1914)
Invested
$8.03
Value
$10.28
PnL
+$2.41
Record
45%
108-131 (239)
Invested
$0.82
Value
$0.82
PnL
-$0
Record
65%
482-259 (741)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.