Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Yang Chiung-ying win the next Taichung Mayor election?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3 held · ends Nov 29
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$2.82
-$83.55
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.4 | $1.43 | -$41.98 | 49% 9047-9526 (18573) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $19.17 | $0.63 | -$18.54 | 60% 7177-4741 (11918) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $13.44 | $0.46 | -$12.99 | 79% 10607-2754 (13361) |
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $4.13 | $0.12 | -$4.01 | 17% 221-1065 (1286) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $4.13 | $0.12 | -$4.01 | 30% 2187-5031 (7218) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $1.67 | $0.05 | -$1.62 | 44% 4029-5217 (9246) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $0.43 | $0.01 | -$0.41 | 51% 218-210 (428) |
Invested
$0.4
Value
$1.43
PnL
-$41.98
Record
49%
9047-9526 (18573)
Invested
$19.17
Value
$0.63
PnL
-$18.54
Record
60%
7177-4741 (11918)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$13.44
Value
$0.46
PnL
-$12.99
Record
79%
10607-2754 (13361)
Invested
$4.13
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$4.01
Record
17%
221-1065 (1286)
Invested
$4.13
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$4.01
Record
30%
2187-5031 (7218)
Invested
$1.67
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$1.62
Record
44%
4029-5217 (9246)
Invested
$0.43
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.41
Record
51%
218-210 (428)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.