Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Yan Diomande (Real Madrid) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $7 held · ends Jun 15, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Jun 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$7.45

Combined PnL

-$29.93

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$7.45

Total Shares6,005

Combined PnL-$29.93

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$4.27	$6.4	-$2.13	41% 1295-1880 (3175)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$13.67	$0.45	-$13.22	60% 7177-4741 (11918)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yes	$0.25	$0.25	-$2.42	50% 7809-7848 (15657)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$5.08	$0.17	-$4.91	24% 666-2082 (2748)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$2.27	$0.08	-$2.2	25% 181-537 (718)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.35	$0.04	-$1.3	51% 218-210 (428)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.19	$0.04	-$1.15	25% 228-684 (912)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR	Yes	$163	$0.03	-$2.6	55% 5874-4767 (10641)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.27

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$2.13

Record

41%

1295-1880 (3175)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.67

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$13.22

Record

60%

7177-4741 (11918)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$2.42

Record

50%

7809-7848 (15657)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.08

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$4.91

Record

24%

666-2082 (2748)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$2.2

Record

25%

181-537 (718)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.3

Record

51%

218-210 (428)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.19

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.15

Record

25%

228-684 (912)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR

Yes

Invested

$163

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.6

Record

55%

5874-4767 (10641)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.