Will XRP reach $2.00 in November?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$1.1K
$29.16
95.2¢ → 95.6¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$14.45 | 66% 2458-1291 (3749) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $157.64 | $100.38 | +$39.64 | 98% 6914-167 (7081) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $6.93 | $14.52 | +$3.96 | 54% 785-659 (1444) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $0.03 | $0.05 | +$0.01 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
Invested
$1,046.02
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$14.45
Record
66%
2458-1291 (3749)
Invested
$157.64
Value
$100.38
PnL
+$39.64
Record
98%
6914-167 (7081)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$14.52
PnL
+$3.96
Record
54%
785-659 (1444)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.05
PnL
+$0.01
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.