Will XRP reach $1.60 in November?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$2.3K
$23.78
94.3¢ → 97.7¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
68h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 94¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$76.04 | 68% 208-97 (305) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 97¢ | $157.75 | $158.97 | +$1.22 | 88% 130-17 (147) |
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $55.19 | $55.57 | +$0.38 | — 2-4 (6) |
AN AndreasSchmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $84.96 | $32.57 | -$52.39 | — |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $4.68 | $3.47 | -$1.21 | 64% 84-48 (132) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $0.5 | $0.26 | -$0.25 | 46% 2852-3388 (6240) |
Invested
$1,931.71
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$76.04
Record
68%
208-97 (305)
Invested
$157.75
Value
$158.97
PnL
+$1.22
Record
88%
130-17 (147)
Invested
$55.19
Value
$55.57
PnL
+$0.38
Record
—
2-4 (6)
Invested
$84.96
Value
$32.57
PnL
-$52.39
Record
—
Invested
$4.68
Value
$3.47
PnL
-$1.21
Record
64%
84-48 (132)
Invested
$0.5
Value
$0.26
PnL
-$0.25
Record
46%
2852-3388 (6240)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.