Will XRP dip to $1.20 in October?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 88¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$5.7K
$528.55
77.7¢ → 87.5¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 80.7¢ | $4.0K | $4.3K | +$339.04 | 65% 2332-1258 (3590) |
FI fiankee | Noavg 66.8¢ | $940.72 | $1.2K | +$270.75 | 56% 996-797 (1793) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 82.5¢ | $338.48 | $91.5 | -$32.21 | 54% 739-627 (1366) |
TO TokorCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.9¢ | $76.37 | $27.34 | -$49.03 | 64% 746-428 (1174) |
Invested
$4,010.81
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$339.04
Record
65%
2332-1258 (3590)
Invested
$940.72
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$270.75
Record
56%
996-797 (1793)
Invested
$338.48
Value
$91.5
PnL
-$32.21
Record
54%
739-627 (1366)
Invested
$76.37
Value
$27.34
PnL
-$49.03
Record
64%
746-428 (1174)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.