Will XRP dip to $0.80 by December 31, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 91¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$145.03

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 90.5¢

+28% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,235

Combined PnL+$699.14

Yes2 traders

Total Value$127.81

Total Shares1,345

Combined PnL-$554.12

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FI fiankee	Noavg 71.1¢	$3.1K	$3.8K	+$685.52	56% 995-796 (1791)
XieGuangKunCTR	Yesavg 53.5¢	$713.22	$126.64	-$553.25	51% 367-349 (716)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4<$100	Noavg 45¢	$14.24	$27.86	+$13.62	54% 739-627 (1366)
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$2.04	$1.17	-$0.86	50% 1063-1074 (2137)

fiankee

Invested

$3,098.11

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$685.52

Record

56%

995-796 (1791)

XieGuangKunCTR

Yes

Invested

$713.22

Value

$126.64

PnL

-$553.25

Record

51%

367-349 (716)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4<$100

Invested

$14.24

Value

$27.86

PnL

+$13.62

Record

54%

739-627 (1366)

Albert 1953CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.04

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$0.86

Record

50%

1063-1074 (2137)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.0%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.