Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in October?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$2.8K
$333.46
88.2¢ → 99.7¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV Avamax | Noavg 94.3¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$87.63 | 80% 382-95 (477) |
DI Dimpled-Foal | Noavg 64¢ | $214.75 | $329.17 | +$114.42 | 53% 194-169 (363) |
 PippiTrader | Noavg 60.6¢ | $376.92 | $203.28 | +$241.63 | 60% 263-178 (441) |
 AliciaCTR | Yesavg 29.4¢ | $120.46 | $7.65 | -$111.18 | 76% 417-129 (546) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.05 | $0.95 | +$0.9 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.01 | $0.06 | +$0.06 | 18% 3784-17100 (20884) |
Invested
$2,152.87
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$87.63
Record
80%
382-95 (477)
Invested
$214.75
Value
$329.17
PnL
+$114.42
Record
53%
194-169 (363)
PippiTraderInvested
$376.92
Value
$203.28
PnL
+$241.63
Record
60%
263-178 (441)
AliciaCTRInvested
$120.46
Value
$7.65
PnL
-$111.18
Record
76%
417-129 (546)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.95
PnL
+$0.9
Record
61%
20778-13190 (33968)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.06
PnL
+$0.06
Record
18%
3784-17100 (20884)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.