Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 62¢ · $676 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$675.94
-$125.29
82¢ → 61.5¢
-25% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
147h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR Prinas | Noavg 81.6¢ | $700 | $536.27 | -$159.44 | 80% 269-67 (336) |
 PippiTraderCTR | Yesavg 19.6¢ | $132.34 | $53.77 | +$27.93 | 59% 199-136 (335) |
 Alicia<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $44.34 | $31.31 | -$13.03 | 78% 352-100 (452) |
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.4¢ | $16.57 | $30.28 | +$12.23 | 50% 1045-1060 (2105) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.7¢ | $14.63 | $24.31 | +$7.01 | 53% 135-118 (253) |
Invested
$700
Value
$536.27
PnL
-$159.44
Record
80%
269-67 (336)
PippiTraderCTRInvested
$132.34
Value
$53.77
PnL
+$27.93
Record
59%
199-136 (335)
Alicia<$100Invested
$44.34
Value
$31.31
PnL
-$13.03
Record
78%
352-100 (452)
Invested
$16.57
Value
$30.28
PnL
+$12.23
Record
50%
1045-1060 (2105)
Invested
$14.63
Value
$24.31
PnL
+$7.01
Record
53%
135-118 (253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.