Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in October?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 97¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$8.9K
$108.06
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV Avamax | Noavg 96.1¢ | $8.2K | $8.3K | +$60.62 | 80% 362-93 (455) |
 PippiTrader | No | $464.23 | $464.23 | +$15.99 | 59% 199-137 (336) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $41.06 | $90.91 | +$49.85 | 54% 141-120 (261) |
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $44.85 | $23.15 | -$18.4 | 50% 1050-1062 (2112) |
TE test456y78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $0.73 | $0.73 | +$0 | 36% 58-105 (163) |
Invested
$8,213.8
Value
$8.3K
PnL
+$60.62
Record
80%
362-93 (455)
PippiTraderInvested
$464.23
Value
$464.23
PnL
+$15.99
Record
59%
199-137 (336)
Invested
$41.06
Value
$90.91
PnL
+$49.85
Record
54%
141-120 (261)
Invested
$44.85
Value
$23.15
PnL
-$18.4
Record
50%
1050-1062 (2112)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$0.73
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
58-105 (163)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.