Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 55 of 55 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will xAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
55 of 55 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 26¢ · $39K held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
55
Yes 100%
$39.1K
$37.4K
1.1¢ → 25.5¢
+2139% since entry · 54 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
55 of 55 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)55 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
55 traders
Top 2 hold 30%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 30% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BiggggggggCTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $228.85 | $6.1K | +$5.9K | 43% 3031-3985 (7016) |
E4 e46m3CTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $304.97 | $5.8K | +$5.5K | 72% 12569-4976 (17545) |
 balthazarCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $200.07 | $3.8K | +$3.6K | 54% 26686-22406 (49092) |
 tetroseCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $29.68 | $3.1K | +$3.1K | 42% 190-266 (456) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $126.11 | $2.4K | +$2.3K | 59% 10657-7345 (18002) |
CR cry.eth2CTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $22.98 | $2.0K | +$1.9K | 40% 9522-14497 (24019) |
0X 0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $63.05 | $1.2K | +$1.1K | 29% 646-1593 (2239) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $47.12 | $889.19 | +$842.07 | 53% 6380-5635 (12015) |
 LucerysCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $44.94 | $848.22 | +$803.28 | 79% 11645-3073 (14718) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $43.76 | $825.74 | +$781.98 | 54% 21895-19024 (40919) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $40.61 | $766.32 | +$725.72 | 53% 6106-5421 (11527) |
KA kaxel78CTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $40.59 | $766.02 | +$725.42 | 28% 328-850 (1178) |
AL alex20011CTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $32.99 | $622.6 | +$589.6 | 43% 3626-4897 (8523) |
PO pollo07CTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $32.99 | $622.6 | +$589.6 | 30% 368-868 (1236) |
AK akrollCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $32.99 | $622.6 | +$589.6 | 29% 372-896 (1268) |
KL klli27CTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $32.99 | $622.6 | +$589.6 | 29% 356-871 (1227) |
AN anothercoinCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $27.36 | $516.38 | +$489.01 | 50% 472-466 (938) |
WA WarriorHCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $27.07 | $510.74 | +$483.68 | 17% 1059-5142 (6201) |
KO korda77CTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $25.48 | $506.79 | +$481.31 | 45% 5737-6983 (12720) |
SM smallreceiptCTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $25.6 | $489.62 | +$464.03 | 49% 8173-8423 (16596) |
PL plainfolderCTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $25.24 | $483.1 | +$457.85 | 32% 3307-6896 (10203) |
ZE zerone777CTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $24.64 | $464.97 | +$440.33 | 37% 454-779 (1233) |
GR graynotebook19CTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $23.49 | $446.35 | +$422.86 | 62% 13205-8189 (21394) |
AH aHjCzCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $23.62 | $445.8 | +$422.18 | 40% 5249-8015 (13264) |
RA ratedCTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $21.76 | $423.05 | +$400.48 | 29% 2880-7025 (9905) |
Invested
$228.85
Value
$6.1K
PnL
+$5.9K
Record
43%
3031-3985 (7016)
Invested
$304.97
Value
$5.8K
PnL
+$5.5K
Record
72%
12569-4976 (17545)
balthazarCTRInvested
$200.07
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$3.6K
Record
54%
26686-22406 (49092)
tetroseCTRInvested
$29.68
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$3.1K
Record
42%
190-266 (456)
Invested
$126.11
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$2.3K
Record
59%
10657-7345 (18002)
Invested
$22.98
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$1.9K
Record
40%
9522-14497 (24019)
Invested
$63.05
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
29%
646-1593 (2239)
Invested
$47.12
Value
$889.19
PnL
+$842.07
Record
53%
6380-5635 (12015)
LucerysCTRInvested
$44.94
Value
$848.22
PnL
+$803.28
Record
79%
11645-3073 (14718)
Invested
$43.76
Value
$825.74
PnL
+$781.98
Record
54%
21895-19024 (40919)
Invested
$40.61
Value
$766.32
PnL
+$725.72
Record
53%
6106-5421 (11527)
Invested
$40.59
Value
$766.02
PnL
+$725.42
Record
28%
328-850 (1178)
Invested
$32.99
Value
$622.6
PnL
+$589.6
Record
43%
3626-4897 (8523)
Invested
$32.99
Value
$622.6
PnL
+$589.6
Record
30%
368-868 (1236)
Invested
$32.99
Value
$622.6
PnL
+$589.6
Record
29%
372-896 (1268)
Invested
$32.99
Value
$622.6
PnL
+$589.6
Record
29%
356-871 (1227)
Invested
$27.36
Value
$516.38
PnL
+$489.01
Record
50%
472-466 (938)
Invested
$27.07
Value
$510.74
PnL
+$483.68
Record
17%
1059-5142 (6201)
Invested
$25.48
Value
$506.79
PnL
+$481.31
Record
45%
5737-6983 (12720)
Invested
$25.6
Value
$489.62
PnL
+$464.03
Record
49%
8173-8423 (16596)
Invested
$25.24
Value
$483.1
PnL
+$457.85
Record
32%
3307-6896 (10203)
Invested
$24.64
Value
$464.97
PnL
+$440.33
Record
37%
454-779 (1233)
Invested
$23.49
Value
$446.35
PnL
+$422.86
Record
62%
13205-8189 (21394)
Invested
$23.62
Value
$445.8
PnL
+$422.18
Record
40%
5249-8015 (13264)
Invested
$21.76
Value
$423.05
PnL
+$400.48
Record
29%
2880-7025 (9905)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bigggggggg
CTRYes — $6.1K
e46m3
CTRYes — $5.8K
balthazar
CTRYes — $3.8K
tetrose
CTRYes — $3.1K
qwen300.fund
CTRYes — $2.4K
cry.eth2
CTRYes — $2.0K
0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2
CTRYes — $1.2K
0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060
CTRYes — $889.19
Lucerys
CTRYes — $848.22
cigarettes
CTRYes — $825.74