Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 99¢ · $8K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$8.1K
-$191.97
99¢ → 98.9¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$1.67 | 48% 3408-3679 (7087) |
KA kaxel78 | Noavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$1.87 | 31% 251-551 (802) |
LI Likaseent | Noavg 99.1¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$3.63 | 30% 184-437 (621) |
PO pollo07 | Noavg 99¢ | $959.87 | $958.24 | -$1.63 | 32% 303-640 (943) |
VA Vale54holi | Noavg 99.1¢ | $900.73 | $898.33 | -$2.41 | 28% 159-408 (567) |
AK akroll | Noavg 99¢ | $750.79 | $749.13 | -$1.66 | 33% 304-623 (927) |
KL klli27 | Noavg 99¢ | $560.59 | $559.37 | -$1.23 | 32% 279-606 (885) |
ZE zerone777 | Noavg 99¢ | $279.97 | $279.67 | -$0.3 | 41% 379-537 (916) |
CO cowcatCTR | Yesavg 4¢ | $279.04 | $98.13 | -$180.92 | 53% 1544-1355 (2899) |
Invested
$2,365.82
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$1.67
Record
48%
3408-3679 (7087)
Invested
$1,118.85
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$1.87
Record
31%
251-551 (802)
Invested
$1,043.9
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$3.63
Record
30%
184-437 (621)
Invested
$959.87
Value
$958.24
PnL
-$1.63
Record
32%
303-640 (943)
Invested
$900.73
Value
$898.33
PnL
-$2.41
Record
28%
159-408 (567)
Invested
$750.79
Value
$749.13
PnL
-$1.66
Record
33%
304-623 (927)
Invested
$560.59
Value
$559.37
PnL
-$1.23
Record
32%
279-606 (885)
Invested
$279.97
Value
$279.67
PnL
-$0.3
Record
41%
379-537 (916)
Invested
$279.04
Value
$98.13
PnL
-$180.92
Record
53%
1544-1355 (2899)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.