Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$2.5K
$-1.3K
Research grade
NeutralNo at 46%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
380h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV AvamaxCTR | Noavg 82.3¢ | $3.6K | $2.0K | $-1.6K | 79% 359-93 (452) |
AL Albert 1953 | Yesavg 9.9¢ | $26.6 | $306 | +$279.4 | 50% 1045-1060 (2105) |
 PippiTrader | Yesavg 51.7¢ | $283.67 | $156.13 | +$6.67 | 59% 199-136 (335) |
DI Dimpled-Foal<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $3 | $15.3 | +$12.3 | 53% 134-118 (252) |
 Alicia<$100 | Yesavg 8.7¢ | $0.76 | $13.54 | +$12.78 | 78% 347-100 (447) |
Invested
$3,564.82
Value
$2.0K
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
79%
359-93 (452)
Invested
$26.6
Value
$306
PnL
+$279.4
Record
50%
1045-1060 (2105)
PippiTraderInvested
$283.67
Value
$156.13
PnL
+$6.67
Record
59%
199-136 (335)
Invested
$3
Value
$15.3
PnL
+$12.3
Record
53%
134-118 (252)
Alicia<$100Invested
$0.76
Value
$13.54
PnL
+$12.78
Record
78%
347-100 (447)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.