Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in October?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 100¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$10.3K
$405.25
78.5¢ → 100¢
+27% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C0 C03B | Yesavg 99.8¢ | $5.0K | $4.6K | -$356.54 | 85% 687-120 (807) |
 CoinTrick | Yesavg 99.8¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$4.82 | 98% 3215-81 (3296) |
TE test456y78 | Yesavg 9.9¢ | $195.43 | $1.8K | +$1.6K | 39% 77-123 (200) |
AV AvamaxCTR | Noavg 93.8¢ | $2.1K | $880.83 | $-1.2K | 80% 382-96 (478) |
DI Dimpled-Foal | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $16.78 | $335.39 | +$318.61 | 54% 198-169 (367) |
Invested
$4,954.02
Value
$4.6K
PnL
-$356.54
Record
85%
687-120 (807)
CoinTrickInvested
$2,621.87
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$4.82
Record
98%
3215-81 (3296)
Invested
$195.43
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
39%
77-123 (200)
Invested
$2,072.09
Value
$880.83
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
80%
382-96 (478)
Invested
$16.78
Value
$335.39
PnL
+$318.61
Record
54%
198-169 (367)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.