Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 Week of October 26 2026?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 100¢ · $912 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$911.8
-$423.81
96.2¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CoinTrick | Yesavg 99.8¢ | $997.66 | $609.5 | -$388.16 | 98% 3215-81 (3296) |
C0 C03BCTR | Noavg 1¢ | $12.32 | $145.57 | +$134.11 | 85% 687-120 (807) |
 PippiTraderCTR | Noavg 27.7¢ | $825.19 | $126.99 | +$36.95 | 59% 265-182 (447) |
TE test456y78<$100 | Yesavg 8.1¢ | $3.25 | $24.6 | +$21.35 | 39% 77-123 (200) |
AV AvamaxCTR | Noavg 95¢ | $232.49 | $4.99 | -$227.5 | 80% 382-96 (478) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.2¢ | $0.7 | $0.15 | -$0.55 | 18% 526-2355 (2881) |
CoinTrickInvested
$997.66
Value
$609.5
PnL
-$388.16
Record
98%
3215-81 (3296)
Invested
$12.32
Value
$145.57
PnL
+$134.11
Record
85%
687-120 (807)
PippiTraderCTRInvested
$825.19
Value
$126.99
PnL
+$36.95
Record
59%
265-182 (447)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$24.6
PnL
+$21.35
Record
39%
77-123 (200)
Invested
$232.49
Value
$4.99
PnL
-$227.5
Record
80%
382-96 (478)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.7
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$0.55
Record
18%
526-2355 (2881)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.