Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Wuthering Heights get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.03

Combined PnL

-$182.69

Smart Money Entry

4.5¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$2.03

Total Shares4,065

Combined PnL-$182.69

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$57.85	$0.64	-$57.21	63% 12918-7608 (20526)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$51.34	$0.56	-$50.77	92% 8456-738 (9194)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$41.99	$0.46	-$41.52	60% 7176-4688 (11864)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$9.82	$0.11	-$9.71	44% 4014-5074 (9088)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$8.61	$0.09	-$8.52	17% 221-1047 (1268)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$5.16	$0.06	-$5.1	30% 320-759 (1079)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$5.16	$0.06	-$5.1	30% 367-838 (1205)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$3.68	$0.04	-$3.64	55% 6018-4905 (10923)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$1.12	$0.01	-$1.11	28% 212-552 (764)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.85

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$57.21

Record

63%

12918-7608 (20526)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.34

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$50.77

Record

92%

8456-738 (9194)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.99

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$41.52

Record

60%

7176-4688 (11864)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.82

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$9.71

Record

44%

4014-5074 (9088)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.61

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$8.52

Record

17%

221-1047 (1268)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.16

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.1

Record

30%

320-759 (1079)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.16

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.1

Record

30%

367-838 (1205)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.68

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$3.64

Record

55%

6018-4905 (10923)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.12

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.11

Record

28%

212-552 (764)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.