Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of November 9 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.4K
-$128.49
89.5¢ → 97¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO Tokor | Noavg 89¢ | $909.51 | $857.31 | +$45.37 | 50% 88-89 (177) |
TE test456y78 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $300.37 | $311.77 | +$11.4 | 18% 13-61 (74) |
C0 C03B | Noavg 95¢ | $123.5 | $123.5 | +$0 | 87% 231-34 (265) |
 PippiTrader | Noavg 81.2¢ | $146.15 | $99.81 | +$12.91 | 37% 14-24 (38) |
 EgoVolaeCTR | Yesavg 22¢ | $218 | $19.83 | -$198.17 | — 6-7 (13) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.35 | $0.35 | +$0 | 13% 29-188 (217) |
Invested
$909.51
Value
$857.31
PnL
+$45.37
Record
50%
88-89 (177)
Invested
$300.37
Value
$311.77
PnL
+$11.4
Record
18%
13-61 (74)
Invested
$123.5
Value
$123.5
PnL
+$0
Record
87%
231-34 (265)
PippiTraderInvested
$146.15
Value
$99.81
PnL
+$12.91
Record
37%
14-24 (38)
EgoVolaeCTRInvested
$218
Value
$19.83
PnL
-$198.17
Record
—
6-7 (13)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.35
Value
$0.35
PnL
+$0
Record
13%
29-188 (217)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.