Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in November?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $12K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$12.2K
-$16.15
98.4¢ → 97.8¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chriszyy3 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $10.9K | $10.9K | -$77.78 | 94% 234-16 (250) |
ST stupid22 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $978 | $985 | +$11 | 94% 397-26 (423) |
HU hugecaulkCTR | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $134.49 | $197.26 | +$62.76 | — |
 Talophex<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $98.6 | $98.5 | +$0.3 | 91% 915-94 (1009) |
SM SmallFishGamblerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $50 | $51.22 | -$12.44 | 41% 17-24 (41) |
Invested
$10,944.33
Value
$10.9K
PnL
-$77.78
Record
94%
234-16 (250)
Invested
$978
Value
$985
PnL
+$11
Record
94%
397-26 (423)
Invested
$134.49
Value
$197.26
PnL
+$62.76
Record
—
Talophex<$100Invested
$98.6
Value
$98.5
PnL
+$0.3
Record
91%
915-94 (1009)
Invested
$50
Value
$51.22
PnL
-$12.44
Record
41%
17-24 (41)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.