Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in November?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 96¢ · $15K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$14.5K
$14.19
97.5¢ → 95.8¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chriszyy3 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $8.7K | $8.5K | -$151.1 | 94% 234-16 (250) |
ST stupid22 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $5.5K | $5.5K | +$41.59 | 94% 397-26 (423) |
HU hugecaulkCTR | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $224.75 | $373.09 | +$148.34 | — |
SM SmallFishGamblerCTR | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $100 | $105.79 | -$25.94 | 41% 17-24 (41) |
 XAE12ArchangelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $18.7 | $20 | +$1.3 | 66% 775-407 (1182) |
Invested
$8,665.8
Value
$8.5K
PnL
-$151.1
Record
94%
234-16 (250)
Invested
$5,531.19
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$41.59
Record
94%
397-26 (423)
Invested
$224.75
Value
$373.09
PnL
+$148.34
Record
—
Invested
$100
Value
$105.79
PnL
-$25.94
Record
41%
17-24 (41)
XAE12ArchangelCTR<$100Invested
$18.7
Value
$20
PnL
+$1.3
Record
66%
775-407 (1182)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.