Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in November?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$5.1K
-$59.53
97.1¢ → 95.9¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stupid22 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $4.9K | $4.8K | -$60 | 94% 397-26 (423) |
SM SmallFishGamblerCTR | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $100 | $137.69 | -$9.54 | 41% 17-24 (41) |
ZX zxdw<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $87.3 | $87.39 | +$0.14 | 84% 32-6 (38) |
 XAE12ArchangelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $61.5 | $65.87 | +$4.37 | 66% 775-407 (1182) |
TO TokorCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $15 | $20.5 | +$5.5 | 63% 762-442 (1204) |
Invested
$4,854.99
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$60
Record
94%
397-26 (423)
Invested
$100
Value
$137.69
PnL
-$9.54
Record
41%
17-24 (41)
Invested
$87.3
Value
$87.39
PnL
+$0.14
Record
84%
32-6 (38)
XAE12ArchangelCTR<$100Invested
$61.5
Value
$65.87
PnL
+$4.37
Record
66%
775-407 (1182)
Invested
$15
Value
$20.5
PnL
+$5.5
Record
63%
762-442 (1204)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.