Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in November?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $12K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$11.9K
-$165.72
95.5¢ → 96.4¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxdw | Noavg 95.5¢ | $9.9K | $10.0K | +$44.13 | 84% 32-6 (38) |
SS ssddssdCTR | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $153.55 | $956.25 | -$16.66 | 52% 326-306 (632) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $932.46 | $740.79 | -$191.67 | 63% 750-434 (1184) |
0X 0x963137a0BA0B02EBf6F37710023Cc1B0303289A1-1764031525036 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $214.76 | $214.12 | -$1.52 | 81% 225-52 (277) |
Invested
$9,915.5
Value
$10.0K
PnL
+$44.13
Record
84%
32-6 (38)
Invested
$153.55
Value
$956.25
PnL
-$16.66
Record
52%
326-306 (632)
Invested
$932.46
Value
$740.79
PnL
-$191.67
Record
63%
750-434 (1184)
Invested
$214.76
Value
$214.12
PnL
-$1.52
Record
81%
225-52 (277)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.