Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 92¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 1

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$505.14

Smart Money Entry

90.7¢ → 91.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,664

Combined PnL+$34.68

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares13,720

Combined PnL-$539.82

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

67h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DI Dimpled-Foal	Noavg 92¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$0.97	52% 242-219 (461)
PippiTrader	Noavg 86.5¢	$496.67	$528.54	+$31.87	61% 385-251 (636)
0X 0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557CTR	Yesavg 9.5¢	$518.65	$438.98	-$50.41	44% 137-173 (310)
SS ssddssdCTR	Yesavg 14.7¢	$603.99	$286.99	-$316.99	53% 365-326 (691)
SM SmallFishGamblerCTR	Yesavg 18.1¢	$237.59	$173.27	-$64.32	40% 22-33 (55)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 18¢	$246.25	$137.9	-$108.35	62% 833-517 (1350)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 91¢	$91.09	$87.02	+$0.53	41% 6237-9133 (15370)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 86¢	$18.84	$20.16	+$1.31	77% 12312-3779 (16091)
TE test456y78CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$0.45	$0.7	+$0.25	38% 101-167 (268)

Dimpled-Foal

Invested

$1,813.83

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0.97

Record

52%

242-219 (461)

PippiTrader

Invested

$496.67

Value

$528.54

PnL

+$31.87

Record

61%

385-251 (636)

0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557CTR

Yes

Invested

$518.65

Value

$438.98

PnL

-$50.41

Record

44%

137-173 (310)

ssddssdCTR

Yes

Invested

$603.99

Value

$286.99

PnL

-$316.99

Record

53%

365-326 (691)

SmallFishGamblerCTR

Yes

Invested

$237.59

Value

$173.27

PnL

-$64.32

Record

40%

22-33 (55)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$246.25

Value

$137.9

PnL

-$108.35

Record

62%

833-517 (1350)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$91.09

Value

$87.02

PnL

+$0.53

Record

41%

6237-9133 (15370)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$18.84

Value

$20.16

PnL

+$1.31

Record

77%

12312-3779 (16091)

test456y78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.7

PnL

+$0.25

Record

38%

101-167 (268)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

67h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.