Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 53¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$3.3K
-$151.4
47.8¢ → 52.5¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MaxVision | Yesavg 51¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | -$45 | 37% 41-71 (112) |
ZX zxdwCTR | Noavg 60.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$245.94 | 84% 32-6 (38) |
SS ssddssd | Yesavg 39.8¢ | $239.71 | $313.44 | +$61.68 | 52% 328-308 (636) |
TO Tokor | Yesavg 39¢ | $216.58 | $294.33 | +$77.75 | 63% 762-442 (1204) |
DI Dimpled-Foal<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $3.93 | $4.04 | +$0.11 | 54% 198-169 (367) |
Invested
$1,530
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$45
Record
37%
41-71 (112)
Invested
$1,409.33
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$245.94
Record
84%
32-6 (38)
Invested
$239.71
Value
$313.44
PnL
+$61.68
Record
52%
328-308 (636)
Invested
$216.58
Value
$294.33
PnL
+$77.75
Record
63%
762-442 (1204)
Invested
$3.93
Value
$4.04
PnL
+$0.11
Record
54%
198-169 (367)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.